I want to show these graphs from Zerohedge with my edits (second graph) because they show the extreme dislocation between the true economic fundamentals and the financial markets in the U.S. “US Macro” data is the differential between Wall Street’s “brain trust” estimates for various economic data and the actual reported result. The negative differential between the expectations of supposedly educated, bright economic professionals and reality has never been greater.
The economic data – almost all of it – has been collapsing at a rate as great or greater than its rate in 2008. The media propaganda megaphone loudly broadcasting that “all is well” has never been set at a higher volume.
Today, for instance, the S&P 500 spiked higher on the jobless claims report, which came in well below Wall Street’s “Einstein” forecast. The jobless claims report is probably the most useless barometer of the employment market other than the Government’s non-farm payroll report. In fact, with the labor force participation rate at 30-year lows, we would expect that the jobless claims report would drop. With fewer people as a percent of the population working, it means there’s less people to be fired.
MOREOVER, many people losing jobs do not even qualify to file for jobless benefits. A long-time white collar/blue collar worker for a big corporation is covered by unemployment insurance. An independent contractor working for an energy company or construction company (construction spending plunged in Q1) does not. Nor do the retail employees of chain stores closing down mall space. In other words, the jobless claims number is basically useless.
My colleague, Dave Kranzler, and I recorded a brief video which we discuss some quite shocking data which further reinforce that both the global and U.S. economy are falling off a cliff:
I hope you take some time to watch the video – I think you’ll be quite shocked by the data we present…When the stock market begins to “regress toward the mean” by re-correlating with the US Macro data, the massive influx of retail investors into the stock market will get decimated – just like in early 2000 and in 2008.
UPDATE – May 8, 2015
It seems there is another data point to support what Dave and I flushed in the show. This comes to us from The BRICS Post on May 7, 2015
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China’s foreign trade declined by 10.9 percent in April from a year earlier, with exports dropping 6.2 percent and imports plummeting 16.1 percent, official data showed on Friday.
Last month, foreign trade volume dropped by 10.9 per cent year on year to 1.96 trillion yuan ($320.56 billion) from a year earlier, following a 13.5-per cent decrease in March and an 11.3-per cent increase in February, said the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
But April’s exports declined 6.2 per cent, 8.4 percentage points less than a 14.6-per cent slump in March, indicating the external environment is improving.
Trade surplus soared by 85.2 per cent to 210.21 billion yuan last month, while expanding 3.4 times to 965.37 billion yuan in the Jan.-April period, the GAC said.
China’s trade with the European Union, its biggest trade partner, waned by 4.9 per cent from January to April, while that with the United States, the second largest, rose 2.3 per cent.
Trade with Japan plummeted by 11 per cent during this period.
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