The polls for President Trump’s reelection would have you believe he just can’t win next month. But a look at where he stands with the Electoral College vote tells a different story.
According to an analysis by The Federalist’s Mollie Hemingway, Trump is positioned quite well to win the all-important Electoral College vote count, regardless of what the left-wing pollsters say.
Indeed, he’s even doing a bit better than he was at this time in 2016.
“In 2016, Trump won by winning battleground states that few expected him to win. Right now, he’s polling slightly and relatively better in those states than he did four years ago,” Hemingway wrote.
So you see that Biden is averaging a 7-point lead in Pennsylvania, but Clinton was averaging a nearly identical lead there four years ago — before Trump won it narrowly on election day. Likewise, Biden’s Florida lead is very similar to Clinton’s lead four years ago. Trump won Florida.
Biden is not performing as well in Wisconsin as Clinton was four years ago. Trump won that state. Biden is doing less well in Michigan, according to the polls, than Clinton did four years ago. Trump won Michigan. Biden’s doing a bit better in North Carolina than Clinton did but Trump won that state by a 4-point margin.
There are a lot of people who don’t put much confidence in polling, but this table shows that even according to the polls themselves, Trump’s performance at this point in the election process is on track with where he was in 2016.
So, there is no need to be panicked. However, there is also no reason to be complacent. We need to campaign hard, push hard, and make sure we get all our friends to vote for Trump.
We can’t slacken if we want Trump to win.
Check out Hemingway’s post for more.
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