Ominous Looking Picture in Healthcare and Education Jobs


Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.

Education and Health Services Employment 1990-PresentEducation and Healthcare

It’s hard to tell much from that picture other than things look very rosy. Let’s have a look in percentage terms.

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Education and Health Services Employment Percent Change

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Education and Healthcare3

Now let’s hone in on the past year.

Education and Health Services Employment 2013-Present

Education and Healthcare2

No Growth!

Education and Health Services Employment Monthly Change in Thousands

The chart appears as if there were several instances of negative numbers in 2003, but a download of the actual data shows the only other negative number in the entire series of data dating back to 1990 occurred in 2003-07-01.

I strongly suspect 2003 was affected by a number of teachers strikes. I could find examples in the Chicago area and in Washington State. I bet there were others. Here is a link regarding Washington: School Board Sues to End Teacher Strike.
Education and Healthcare4

Month-to-Month Table (in Thousands)

Date Change From Previous Month
1990-01-01 #N/A
1990-02-01 36.3
1990-03-01 41.9
1990-04-01 32.6
1990-05-01 37.4
1990-06-01 40.1
1990-07-01 32.5
1990-08-01 34.3
1990-09-01 32.6
1990-10-01 31.7
1990-11-01 28.6
1990-12-01 35.0
1991-01-01 44.6
1991-02-01 30.6
1991-03-01 32.9
1991-04-01 34.0
1991-05-01 20.5
1991-06-01 45.6
1991-07-01 28.8
1991-08-01 39.7
1991-09-01 32.9
1991-10-01 29.8
1991-11-01 25.3
1991-12-01 37.0
1992-01-01 31.7
1992-02-01 21.2
1992-03-01 20.3
1992-04-01 22.4
1992-05-01 23.5
1992-06-01 25.2
1992-07-01 26.6
1992-08-01 16.7
1992-09-01 20.8
1992-10-01 30.4
1992-11-01 33.1
1992-12-01 23.7
1993-01-01 25.8
1993-02-01 26.4
1993-03-01 14.9
1993-04-01 30.2
1993-05-01 33.7
1993-06-01 23.9
1993-07-01 20.0
1993-08-01 23.2
1993-09-01 31.0
1993-10-01 22.5
1993-11-01 16.1
1993-12-01 16.1
1994-01-01 21.7
1994-02-01 15.7
1994-03-01 33.2
1994-04-01 27.8
1994-05-01 21.1
1994-06-01 21.4
1994-07-01 29.0
1994-08-01 25.6
1994-09-01 20.0
1994-10-01 20.2
1994-11-01 17.4
1994-12-01 26.4
1995-01-01 20.4
1995-02-01 29.6
1995-03-01 27.3
1995-04-01 17.9
1995-05-01 13.7
1995-06-01 29.7
1995-07-01 21.5
1995-08-01 28.4
1995-09-01 24.6
1995-10-01 20.1
1995-11-01 28.3
1995-12-01 26.5
1996-01-01 3.7
1996-02-01 39.4
1996-03-01 29.2
1996-04-01 21.5
1996-05-01 25.5
1996-06-01 23.9
1996-07-01 21.0
1996-08-01 18.7
1996-09-01 22.7
1996-10-01 24.1
1996-11-01 25.9
1996-12-01 18.3
1997-01-01 29.3
1997-02-01 17.8
1997-03-01 21.9
1997-04-01 29.1
1997-05-01 26.1
1997-06-01 7.5
1997-07-01 24.7
1997-08-01 12.6
1997-09-01 15.7
1997-10-01 20.8
1997-11-01 16.7
1997-12-01 26.4
1998-01-01 4.4
1998-02-01 10.4
1998-03-01 11.4
1998-04-01 12.6
1998-05-01 19.4
1998-06-01 12.4
1998-07-01 6.7
1998-08-01 12.2
1998-09-01 18.7
1998-10-01 15.1
1998-11-01 10.9
1998-12-01 10.2
1999-01-01 3.4
1999-02-01 24.4
1999-03-01 14.2
1999-04-01 19.7
1999-05-01 5.4
1999-06-01 9.5
1999-07-01 11.1
1999-08-01 13.0
1999-09-01 5.4
1999-10-01 12.9
1999-11-01 13.8
1999-12-01 11.7
2000-01-01 13.1
2000-02-01 12.0
2000-03-01 10.7
2000-04-01 8.9
2000-05-01 15.0
2000-06-01 19.5
2000-07-01 28.0
2000-08-01 22.1
2000-09-01 25.0
2000-10-01 17.7
2000-11-01 18.4
2000-12-01 30.3
2001-01-01 36.8
2001-02-01 33.7
2001-03-01 28.0
2001-04-01 27.4
2001-05-01 29.7
2001-06-01 41.3
2001-07-01 38.3
2001-08-01 32.5
2001-09-01 25.2
2001-10-01 28.5
2001-11-01 27.1
2001-12-01 33.1
2002-01-01 31.4
2002-02-01 30.1
2002-03-01 27.8
2002-04-01 24.5
2002-05-01 17.9
2002-06-01 21.2
2002-07-01 20.5
2002-08-01 35.3
2002-09-01 45.5
2002-10-01 28.8
2002-11-01 28.6
2002-12-01 13.2
2003-01-01 25.4
2003-02-01 22.9
2003-03-01 21.9
2003-04-01 30.5
2003-05-01 23.2
2003-06-01 19.9
2003-07-01 -9.0
2003-08-01 18.2
2003-09-01 13.7
2003-10-01 23.0
2003-11-01 18.7
2003-12-01 27.0
2004-01-01 17.5
2004-02-01 8.8
2004-03-01 36.6
2004-04-01 30.2
2004-05-01 25.2
2004-06-01 15.7
2004-07-01 15.6
2004-08-01 18.8
2004-09-01 15.7
2004-10-01 31.9
2004-11-01 17.3
2004-12-01 20.0
2005-01-01 8.5
2005-02-01 24.2
2005-03-01 15.7
2005-04-01 25.5
2005-05-01 29.4
2005-06-01 30.2
2005-07-01 35.5
2005-08-01 23.0
2005-09-01 21.9
2005-10-01 10.9
2005-11-01 26.1
2005-12-01 13.6
2006-01-01 32.2
2006-02-01 22.9
2006-03-01 30.3
2006-04-01 15.0
2006-05-01 23.0
2006-06-01 22.2
2006-07-01 29.2
2006-08-01 21.5
2006-09-01 33.0
2006-10-01 24.5
2006-11-01 27.2
2006-12-01 38.8
2007-01-01 22.9
2007-02-01 30.4
2007-03-01 26.1
2007-04-01 36.8
2007-05-01 26.0
2007-06-01 38.1
2007-07-01 26.8
2007-08-01 34.8
2007-09-01 32.9
2007-10-01 28.7
2007-11-01 17.0
2007-12-01 27.2
2008-01-01 35.1
2008-02-01 28.0
2008-03-01 30.6
2008-04-01 35.6
2008-05-01 26.2
2008-06-01 24.9
2008-07-01 31.1
2008-08-01 22.2
2008-09-01 13.4
2008-10-01 19.2
2008-11-01 27.8
2008-12-01 23.3
2009-01-01 13.6
2009-02-01 24.3
2009-03-01 7.1
2009-04-01 10.6
2009-05-01 32.3
2009-06-01 25.8
2009-07-01 17.6
2009-08-01 20.1
2009-09-01 21.4
2009-10-01 25.3
2009-11-01 19.5
2009-12-01 16.6
2010-01-01 15.8
2010-02-01 16.0
2010-03-01 32.8
2010-04-01 11.9
2010-05-01 15.6
2010-06-01 17.4
2010-07-01 18.8
2010-08-01 24.1
2010-09-01 8.5
2010-10-01 27.1
2010-11-01 26.3
2010-12-01 26.8
2011-01-01 2.8
2011-02-01 17.0
2011-03-01 28.7
2011-04-01 30.0
2011-05-01 13.8
2011-06-01 29.0
2011-07-01 25.5
2011-08-01 27.4
2011-09-01 31.1
2011-10-01 16.6
2011-11-01 6.5
2011-12-01 8.4
2012-01-01 28.6
2012-02-01 32.0
2012-03-01 24.0
2012-04-01 12.9
2012-05-01 31.2
2012-06-01 9.1
2012-07-01 14.4
2012-08-01 10.7
2012-09-01 33.8
2012-10-01 26.4
2012-11-01 17.6
2012-12-01 27.5
2013-01-01 5.3
2013-02-01 23.1
2013-03-01 11.1
2013-04-01 29.7
2013-05-01 12.9
2013-06-01 17.1
2013-07-01 4.1
2013-08-01 43.2
2013-09-01 2.7
2013-10-01 22.8
2013-11-01 29.6
2013-12-01 2.4
2014-01-01 -0.4

Back-to-back poor months, the last one negative, do not make a trend. Looking ahead, if this is a start of a new trend, it rates to be very ominous for the employment picture.

For more on the latest jobs data, please see Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision

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